2016 – Week 4 Picks

So that was terrible.  2-8 straight up and 2-8 against the spread last week.  We also have not gotten a single Upset of the Week pick correct.  Nothing more to say except we are terrible at this.  No reason to write up long, thought-out, researched previews.  We just get the pick wrong anyway.  So maybe the key to picking games is to write less and just make a pick.

Last weekend I said beware the home dog.  Not entirely true.  It worked out for Louisville nicely.  Major miss on Appalachian State.

Lots of teams on byes this week.  It will be like that from now until the end of the year.  Another reason why it will be harder to make up ground in your league now.

Let's just get on to the wrong picks for this week.

Teams on bye:  Miami, NC State, Illinois, Maryland, Ohio State, Kansas, Oklahoma, Texas, Texas Tech, Washington State, Navy, Toledo, Hawaii, New Mexico, San Diego State, Georgia State, LA Monroe

  USC

vs

  #24  Utah (-3)

Utah is really good at defense.  USC seems like a program in turmoil. (Again.)  Utah plays in a high altitude.  PICK: Utah 28, USC 13

  #12 Georgia

vs

  #23 Ole Miss (-7)

There are going to be multiple SEC games to pick every week with so many teams in the top 25.  Georgia seems like a mirage.  They barely beat Nicholls and they had a 4th down play to beat Missouri.  Ole Miss will be fine as long as they don't go up by 21 points.  PICK: Ole Miss 30, Georgia 21

  #11 Wisconsin

vs

  #8 Michigan St. (-5)

Wisconsin begins its very, very difficult conference schedule with 4 straight against very good teams.  (3 of which are in the top 8, currently.)  Wisconsin has a good defense but had to bring in the back up quarterback last week.  Michigan State destroyed Notre Dame on the road before letting up on the gas and letting the Irish back in the game.  PICK: Michigan State 27, Wisconsin 19

  #19 Florida

vs

 #14 Tennessee (-6.5)

Tennesse hasn't beaten Florida since 2004.  "This is the year" for Tennessee, again.  Florida has the top defense in the coutry.  Tennessee has struggled at home already with Appalachian State and Ohio.  PICK: Florida 28, Tennessee 21

  Pittsburgh

vs

  North Carolina (-7)

Pitt had over 50 rushing attempts against Oklahoma State last week and still gave up 45 points.  That seems tough to do when you are controlling the clock.  North Carolina scores lots of points.  The Tar Heels will score more points.   PICK: North Carolina 49, Pittsburgh 38

  Penn State

vs

  #4 Michigan (-18.5)

Colorado put a little bit of a scare into the Wolverine fans over the last weekend.  Fear not, Michigan fans, Colorado is actually pretty damn good, and a cheap pick that a ton of us missed.  Michigan is still a really good team.  They just need to figure out a few things....like finding a good backup safety.  It's taking a little time for QB Speight to figure things out once he does this team is going to be phenomenal, barring injuries of course.  Penn St. may challenge the Wolverines, but it'll be early if they do.  Michigan is too good at all aspects of the game to lose to a team with this many holes in Penn St.  QB McSorley is overly confident or maybe even careless when he throws the deep ball.  That dude just lets it fly and whatever happens, happens.  Michigan will keep a close eye on that part of McSorley's game.  I imagine a couple of picks are gonna be up for grabs once Michigan gets back their top safety this week.  Penn St. is tough to beat at home, but will be exposed (as we saw in Pitt) on the road.  I think I'm going conservative with Michigan's 48 pts.  Either way I like Michigan big in this matchup.  PICK: Michigan 48, Penn St 24

  #18 LSU

vs

  Auburn (+3.5)

Does anyone else wanna throw up when they see this matchup?  Cuz these teams are gross.  Maybe the two most difficult teams to watch in the Power 5.  God help those of you that picked either of these teams.  I hope the rest of your picks are juggernauts or else you're in trouble.  Let's get to the teams.  Auburn - can't find a QB.  LSU - can't find a QB.  Auburn has a damn good D.  LSU has a damn good D.  This game is already making me throw up a little in my mouth.  We have the potential for a 6-3 game here.  The only thing keeping me away from that score is the multiple INTs that will be thrown and run back to the house.  Maybe I'm over exaggerating a little - I still apologize for nothing.  What happened to Gus Malzahn and his offense?  They used to be a ton of fun to watch now I would rather watch paint dry.  LSU has always been boring as hell to watch, no surprises there.  Neither coach will be at their respective schools after this season.  Folks, we're looking for maximum chaos on this one.  I'm going to take the home dog.  Auburn wins and saves Malzahn for another week.  I might tune in just to feel better about my Sooners.  PICK: Auburn 24, LSU 20

  Oklahoma St.

vs

  #16 Baylor (-8.5)

I kind of want Baylor to win this game....I can't figure out whether that is the result of my hatred for the Pokes or that I feel so bad for the Big 12 that they need someone to have a good record at the end of the season.  Neither one of these are what they used to be - high flying offenses with highly questionable defenses.  Now both sides are highly questionable for each team.  This is where I'm supposed to reel off some stats for Baylor and if they can handle the passing game of OSU, but I won't since Baylor has played absolutely no one and have proven nothing to anyone.  I would not be surprised if the Pokes win by 2 TDs here since I have no idea what to expect from the Bears at this point.  The Pokes were screwed over by the refs against CMU.  I get that.  On the flip side they never should have been that close to CMU.  And on the other flip side, last week's lightning delay against Pitt was a Godsend for the OSU defense.  OSU was able to coach up the defense to make the correct adjustments to shutdown Pitt and take the W at home.  Without the delay we might be looking at a 1-2 Pokes team.  I honestly think that this game is a coin flip even though Baylor is favored by 8.  I'm going with Baylor since I'm taking a wild ass guess that they haven't shown their best offense on tape yet.  Baylor wins in a good game.....heck this could be an OT game.  Baylor by less than a TD....maybe in OT.  PICK: Baylor 36, Oklahoma St. 30

  #7 Stanford

vs

  UCLA (+3)

Is Stanford the PAC-12's horse to reach the Playoff?  All I know that my gut says maybe.  Washington might be the team to breakthrough.  We'll find out next week....that is if Stanford wins this one.  Does anyone else feel like UCLA is the St Louis Blues of CFB?  Almost always a solid team just not good enough to be the best in the end.  That's where QB Josh "Chosen" Rosen is supposed to come in for UCLA.  So far, not so much for Chosen Rosen.  He is a true sophomore though, so plenty of time to get better.  UCLA has a pretty solid defense, not a dominating one but a good one.  Everything for UCLA is good, just not great, folks.  I think you're seeing an emerging pattern here.  UCLA is good just not that great.  Stanford though is pretty damn good....aaaagain.  Eventually someone will figure out how to stop McCaffrey, right?  I loved that one of USC's first plays on D last week they totally forgot to cover McCaffrey.  That was one epic failure.  Good luck USC fans.  Stanford is going to run the crap out of the ball to wear down the defense and methodically beat UCLA in the end.  I do think that Stanford is beatable in the PAC12 if they get behind by a couple of TDs and need to throw the ball more than they're comfortable.  The defense isn't the best Stanford has had in the past few years, by a mile.  Mr. McCaffery makes it for it all in the end.  There are no secrets to beat the Cardinals - contain McCaffrey and make Stanford throw the ball.  UCLA isn't good enough to do that though....Stanford by a little over a TD.   PICK:Stanford 28, UCLA 20

  #17 Arkansas

vs

  #10 Texas A&M (-5.5)

Winner plays Alabama.  That's right, the Arkansas vs Texas A&M will determine which team will challenge Bama for the SEC West (unless Ole Miss runs the table or LSU finds an offense overnight - both are unlikely).  The Aggies have done what has been needed in these games to get the W....and that's about it.  I can't believe I'm saying this; Texas A&M is relying heavily on their defense to win games these days.  What the hell is happening in the SEC?!?!?  A&M and Auburn have below average offenses and above average defenses....crazy times we live in now.  Recycled QB Trevor Knight gets a passing grade thus far.  I say this as an OU fan that knows what kind of terribleness Knight is capable of - there will be a game where he will look like he has no idea what a football is.  It's coming, just don't know when, could be this week, could be a month from now, but it's coming, folks.  You better believe it.  So A&M has a talented D with a few NFL 1st rounders thrown in there, an average offense with a couple of playmakers, and you have yourself a team that should be competitive in every game this year (except for the lost Knight game that will happen).  On to Arkansas now.  I thought that after seeing the Razorbacks struggle to win against LA Tech that anyone picking the Razorbacks is in for a long year (that includes me!).  Then they pull off a miracle against TCU then trounce Texas St.  Arkansas gets better every game, which is no different from any other season that Beilema has been the head coach.  They are always a scary, scary team to play at the end of the year....they just never start off this way.  Now that Arkansas has the momentum and confidence they could get seriously dangerous, especially if they ended up winning this game.  If that does happen they'll be undefeated going up against Bama at home in 2 weeks.  RB Williams III seems to be getting better as they move along each game and so does QB Austin Allen.  If Arkansas can sew some things up on defense they'll make a run for this thing.  I truly believe that this will be Arkansas's best season under Beilema yet.  Razorbacks in another close one...book it!  Let's go all in.  This is the UPSET of the Week too! PICK: Arkansas 33, Texas A&M 30

Season Record - Straight Up: 14-16

Season Record - Versus Spread: 9-21

Upset of the Week: 0-3

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