The Clemson Tigers are the national champs!  Many people thought they could win the game, but I'm not sure how many thought they would win by a margin so large.  They destroyed Alabama to the tune of 44-16.  They only allowed 3 points after the first quarter.  Quite the performance.  But I guess Alabama wasn't motivated, so don't give Clemson too much credit.  That's what happens when an SEC team loses a bowl game.  It's clear they weren't happy to be there.  Beware the curse of the 1 seed.  A popular stat going around now is that no #1 seed has won the College Football Playoff yet.  Since that is a popular statement, it probably means that will be reversed next year.  Also beware the curse of the "best team of all time" talk.  So many times people try to start figuring out a team's placement in the greatest teams of all time before the championship is even played.  I supposed they need something to talk about with all the time between the end of the season and the bowls.  But it usually seems like that team ends up losing the game and all that talk is moot.  Read more...

The bowl season is a wrap.  All that is left is the national championship game between #1 Alabama and #2 Clemson.  They are meeting for what feels like the 17th straight year, but is technically the 4th straight year in the Playoff.  Two times they have met for the national championship with each winning once.  Then Alabama beat them last year in the semifinal on the way to another national championship.  This season has felt like a season of inevitability.  Very rarely does the top 2 preseason favorites actually make it all the way through the season as the top 2 teams.  Read More...

The bowl season has been in swing for about a week and most of the games have been lopsided so far.  Probably too small a sample size to take anything from it.  Most looked like pretty decent games, but you never know what happens this time of year.  The big matchups will be coming fast and furious the next week or so.  Obviously the national championship game matchup will be decided.  But there also is the "momentum" teams will be looking for heading into the spring and next season.  Although there doesn't seem to be much riding on these games for recruiting anymore with the early signing period that has been implemented.  Almost all the top 300 prospects have already make their commitment.  Kind of an interesting wrinkle.  Only a couple weeks left in the season.  How did that happen?  Read More...

It's amazing that college football is even able to field a Playoff field of 4 teams.  No, really.  If you really hate yourself, you can read the comment section of an article by a national college football writer.  Or more likely, you can go through the comments of a national college football writer's tweets.  The writer won't even state an opinion.  They will state some simple fact like a team's record and it will inevitably devolve into people ripping a team's schedule and questioning how they could possibly make the Playoff or even a good bowl game when they actually haven't played anyone good when you go through their schedule.  Read more...

The conference championships are here.  and for the first time, every single conference has one.  Lots to settle this week in both the conferences and the national picture.  The debate has been raging between Oklahoma and Ohio State for the 4th playoff spot behind Alabama, Clemson, and Notre Dame.  Of course, all those teams still have to win.  Oklahoma is playing a team that already beat them this year.  And don't sleep on Pitt-Clemson.  Pitt is known for wrecking #2 ranked teams' seasons.  Read More...

Rivalry week ended up being a cornucopia of points.  Lots of times rivals will hold down the points against each other, but that was nowhere near the case this weekend.  You can't lead off talking about the week without the 7 OT game between LSU and Texas A&M.  LSU almost had that game won by a fraction of a second at the end of the 4th quarter.  And then it ended up going on forever.  A&M ultimately won 74-72 in what will surely be remembered for many years.  72 points is usually a month's worth of points for LSU's offense.  And we mention it every year - the Zombie Buckeyes.  You can never get rid of them.  They are always in the Playoff conversation.  Maryland had a wide open two point conversion that went off the fingertips that could have been the 2 loss headshot for the Zombies.  But they survived and they hung 62 points on the best defense in the country this year.  So since Michigan is completely incapable of ever beating Ohio State, the Zombie Buckeyes are back in the Playoff conversation.  A year like this where there are really only 2 elite teams and then a mosh pit of other teams, UCF is still undefeated and should be given a chance at the Playoff.  But they won't.  Even if they beat Memphis in their conference championship, their strength of schedule will be held against them and their backup quarterback will be held against them.  Going back to the Zombie Buckeyes, their third string quarterback didn't prevent them from being picked for the Playoff a few years ago.  It helps to have that name brand even though something like that shouldn't matter.  Read more...

We are here.  Not sure how it happened so fast.  It's the last week of the regular season.  It seems like just yesterday we were talking about the Alabama QB controversy, TCU looking like a contender after how they played against Ohio State, Mark Richt bringing Miami back to national prominence, Wisconsin about to run through the Big 10 west, Lane Kiffin positioning himself for his next Power 5 job.  There was so much out in front of us, and now we are here.  Read More...

With SEC playing out its annual cupcake week, it was a rather dull week for college football.  Nothing happened that made you do more than slightly raise an eyebrow.  West Virginia lost to Oklahoma State on the road.  A little surprising?  Yes.  Shocking that they would lose?  No.  In a league with little resistance to high-powered offenses, Big XII games always can go either way.  Alabama tied with the Citadel at halftime?  Definitely worth an eyebrow raise, but everyone knew what the second half would bring.  Even Alabama is a team made up of kids that no doubt were not taking their opponent seriously.  Read more...

Last week was very tame.  So tame in fact, that the top 10 of the College Football Playoff rankings remained exactly the same.  That also means UCF has still not broken into the top 10 despite their undefeated record.  They get to play a top 25 team this week against Cincinnati.  It has actually been made the ABC primetime game.  They need to have a good showing in addition to getting a quality win.  Read More...

That was an uneventful weekend.  Nothing very earth shattering happened this past week.  The top of the top kept on winning.  Oklahoma had the biggest scare to survive out of the top teams.  Throw those records out when it is a rivalry game.  Alabama is on a quest to not give up a point in November as they shut out another top 25 opponent.  And Northwestern has clinched the Big 10 West!  That's right.  A team that is 6-4 clinched a spot in their conference championship game with 2 weeks to go.  This has been a strange season.  The top is very good, and the rest is just crazy.  But it doesn't feel crazy because the top is so steady.  Read more...

This week doesn't appear to have the greatest slate of games.  Usually that means something crazy will happen.  We can only hope that this weekend will break up the bluest of blue bloods College Football Playoff rankings we have.  Alabama, Clemson, Notre Dame, and Michigan in the top 4?  Chalk up another one to name brands.  Will one of them stumble this week, or will the march towards tradition continue on?  Read More...

Well, it looks like Alabama really is heading towards that championship.  The general consensus was that LSU was going to be the Tide's toughest test, LSU will definitely cover that spread, and even LSU winning outright.  Not so much.  Alabama showed that they are on another level this year.  They held LSU to 12 yards rushing and sacked the QB 5 times.  So it looks like we are heading to another Alabama-Clemson matchup in the Playoff.  Clemson has really turned it on the past month since they have figured out they just need to run the ball and let their defense dominate.  It feels like the rest of the college football world is playing for 3rd place this year.  So what!  There are still 126 other teams besides Alabama and Clemson.  That means there will always be something interesting and exciting happening.  Read more...

The first College Football Playoff rankings came out and for once there doesn't seem to be much outrage.  Alabama, Clemson, and Notre Dame are all in the top 4 as expected.  The only debate going in really was how high LSU would be.  They have 1 loss so far but have played a very tough schedule.  And the point is moot after this week as Alabama and LSU play each other.  Alabama is a huge favorite in the game, as they should be.  But they have only beaten 1 top 30 team so far (per Jeff Sagarin's ratings).  LSU has beaten 4 top 30 teams (most in the nation) and 1 top 10 team to date.  Not saying that means Alabama will lose, but LSU has the chops to knock them off.  Read More...

In our picks column, we mentioned how there were quite a few teams facing road tests this weekend.  It was trick and treat across the nation for the teams leading up to Halloween.  Eleven top 25 teams went down over the weekend.  That is a lot, but the top is still as stable as ever.  Clemson eviscerated Florida State to the point where shirtless professors were sitting in the stands just to get some sun and read a good book.  Utah kept on rolling against UCLA and controls the PAC 12 south.  Kentucky and Washington State both had to make 4th quarter comebacks to keep their division hopes alive.  But there were plenty of other losses by other contenders to make this an exciting weekend.  Read more...

Week 9 has quite a few top 25 teams going on the road.  There are lots of potential pitfalls out there as you just got to throw the records out the window when you go on the road in conference play.  Texas has reached some heights it hasn't seen for awhile.  Can they handle the expectations against a disappointing Oklahoma State team?  Will Penn State finally assert itself, or will Iowa continue its run towards another unexpected, successful season.  Kentucky goes on the road ranked #12 against an unranked foe and is getting no respect from Vegas.  Read More...

And Ohio State suffers it's annual baffling road loss.  Last year it was a 31 point beatdown at Iowa, and this year it's a 29 point loss at Purdue.  Now there are stories coming out about all the discord within the Ohio State program and with Urban Meyer.  That escalated quickly.  I wouldn't say Ohio State's Playoff chances are dead yet.  Not this year with every week seemingly bringing another huge upset.  At this point the Big 10, Big 12, and PAC 12 are all guaranteed to have a conference champ with at least 1 loss.  Read more...

This week has quite a few top 25 matchups.  Nothing of the top 10 variety, but a lot that will decide the direction of conference division winners.  Clemson has looked awesome one week, and very beatable another week.  NC State almost beat them at Clemson a couple years ago.  Maybe they pull it off this time.  Oregon has to go on the road and avoid a letdown against Washington State after their big OT win against Washington. Read More...

Just when you think things are becoming clearer, and you start putting together Playoff scenarios, it all falls gloriously apart.  Four top 10 teams lost and 3 barely survived.  If your name isn't Alabama, you need to be on upset alert every week.  Georgia, West Virginia, Washington, and Penn State all went down.  Notre Dame almost fell to the Pitt dream-destroying machine.  Texas had a massive let down as predicted.  And defending national champs UCF had to pitch a 2nd half shutout to win by 1 at Memphis.  Even Miami lost to Virginia.  What a fantastic little bit of chaos. Read more...

Week 7 has a solid slate of games.  There are a handful of top 25 matchups and other good games even if both teams aren't in the top 25.  It will be interesting to see if Texas has a letdown after a huge win over Oklahoma.  Is the schedule finally catching up with LSU as they have to take on another ranked team in Georgia this week.  Can Notre Dame avoid the upset against Pitt?  We know how Pitt has a history of derailing teams' seasons - isn't that right Miami and West Virginia? Read More...

Every result has to be put in the bigger picture, and the bigger picture is starting to clear a bit.  Some teams are already halfway through their schedules and it's becoming apparent the hierarchy for the season.  Alabama and then everyone else.  But beyond the Crimson Tide, the SEC is starting to rise and notably it is the SEC east doing it.  They have been down for years but Georgia is one of the top teams.  Florida is rising after an early stumble.  Kentucky is having a once a decade good year.  Even though LSU lost they are probably Alabama's biggest contender in the west, meaning they will keep it within 4 touchdowns when they play.  Ohio State is clearly in the upper tier.  Clemson looks like it most weeks.  And then Notre Dame is starting to get there. Read more...

The calendar has turned to October and we are heading full steam into week 6.  Teams are starting to separate themselves from the pack, and wins that are survivor stories end up being character building wins when the season is looked back upon.  Wins/losses early in the year look better/worse than at the time depending on how teams have progressed.  One loss that will probably always look bad is Virginia Tech losing to Old Dominion. Read More...

We wanted chaos and we were so close to getting it.  In the end it doesn't matter how you put a tick mark in the W column, it matters that you got it.  Ohio State and Clemson survived their games and keep chugging along to a boring top 5.  For the second year in a row, Penn State blew a large 4th quarter lead against the Buckeyes.  When you go up by double digits with 8 minutes left, the last thing you can do is give up a quick score, and that's exactly what they did.  At that point it's a game again and they were in holding-on mode rather than trying to win.  That was an impressive win for Ohio State going on the road and beating another top 10 team. Read more...

There are a lot of good games this week.  There are 2 top 10 matchups (thanks to Stanford pulling out the most improbable win against Oregon last week.)  Virginia Tech and Duke are playing with one of the teams ranked, and that team is Duke!  Not sure if Duke can produce the same as Old Dominion did last week.  Oregon takes on a ranked Cal team.  West Virginia travels to top 25 ranked Texas Tech.  Not sure how Texas Tech held Oklahoma State to 17 points on the road. Read More...

What a treat!  Michigan and Nebraska get to play to settle the split national championship debate!  What's that?  This isn't the mid-90s?  Nebraska hasn't won a game?  Florida State lost to Syracuse and isn't ranked in the top 5?!  What has happened to the world!  Week 3 was the death of the Big 10.  It always seems like one conference or another is dead for the Playoff early in the season when they have a bad weekend.  But it's always better to lose early than late even though that makes no sense if the committee is truly looking at the whole body of work.  Read More...

Fool me once, shame on you.  Fool me twice, shame on me.  Fool me three times, it's not a fluke anymore?  Not sure if that is how the saying goes, but maybe it should be the saying about trends.  After 3 weeks you can start to make more certain assessments of the teams going forward.  Most teams have played at least one decent opponent at this point and some have even started conference play.  Alabama - scary good.  Ohio State - very good, but beatable.  Georgia - quietest dominating start to a season.  Florida State - who bought the firewillietaggert.com domain name?  The presumed top teams have pretty much performed like that so far.  The SEC west division runner ups from last year look unbeatable right now.  They are pretty much Alabama-minus-anything for betting purposes right now.  The Ohio State-TCU game was quite the roller coaster.  TCU had about a 5 minute disasterous stretch that turned an 8 point lead into a 12 point deficit.  It showed that TCU is able to compete with the top teams, and Ohio State better be on their game or they can get beat in conference play by either Penn State or Michigan. Read more...

Week 3 is upon us and as it seems every year, this is a week that will be affected by a hurricane.  Games have already been moved and canceled.  So some of you will probably be missing out on some points.  It happens every year.  Hope the hurricane is not as devastating as they predict.  But there will be other games going on and almost coldly, life goes on in other parts of the country.  Week 2 came through with the tried and true regression to the mean.  Math truly is the universal language.  Travis had a bit of a lead in the picks after Week 1 while Kyle was lagging behind a tad.  Week 2 has the prognosticators bunched up after pretty much a reversal of the first week. Read More...

Streaks are meant to be broken and FCS teams are meant to take a beating.  The college football world felt like the good old days this past weekend.  If it seemed like there were a bunch of shutouts, it was because there were.  There were 6 of them.  We don't have a research department, but that feels like close to a record.  And two historic streaks were snapped this weekend.  Kansas won a road game for the first time in 46 tries.  It was their first road win since September 12th, 2009.  Netflix mailing DVDs was still their main business model back then.  Florida got taken down by Kentucky for the first time since 1986.  You would think this is basketball season leading off with Kansas and Kentucky.  But not too much of consequence happened this weekend.  Read more...

Week 1 is done and the picks weren't too bad.  You never know what really is going to happen the first week, and that can make you look foolish in making those predictions.  Everyone finished above .500 going straight up and no one bombed as Travis went 11-4 straight up, 10-5 against the spread.  Allan went 10-5, 7-8.  Kyle went 8-7, 8-7. Read More...

Week 1 is in the books!  Mostly.  The annual college Labor Day Monday night game is still to come.  But after months and months of magazines and podcasts predicting what will happen, we finally have some real results to analyze.  And most of the results don't really change many of the perceptions going into the season.  The big match up between Washington and Auburn was a hard fought game with Auburn coming out on top.  That will big for them at the end of the season if they are in contention for a Playoff spot.  It doesn't necessarily mean doom for the Huskies' Playoff chances but they have much less margin of error going forward.  Read more...

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